"Pseudo-MPEC" for XW99CEC

Created 2016 Nov 19 19:13:55 UT using Find_Orb

Further data from (H01) Magdalena Ridge and from (G96) Mt. Lemmon made it very clear that this object is in a two-day orbit and made four orbits between the first and second sets of observations. The link between those arcs is quite rough. Either the object is very light (like a piece of Mylar) and has some really serious non-gravs, or it's an active satellite.

The latter is a little difficult to believe. Not much is in two-day orbits. The main candidates are XMM-Newton (1999-066) and Vela 4a (1967-040). Except that it's not either of those objects, nor a catalogued piece of those objects. It's unlikely that uncatalogued bits would still be maneuvering. So a light bit of trash from one of those launches seems like the best candidate to me.

For customized ephemerides, cut-and-paste the 2016 November 19 observations shown below (you can leave out the November 11 arc) and put them into the big text box in the on-line version of Find_Orb, and set up your observatory code, time span, and so on.

Astrometry:
     XV902A4  C2016 11 11.38964 04 28 16.69 +10 49 46.9         x19.3 VqNEOCPG96
     XV902A4  C2016 11 11.39397 04 28 43.37 +10 52 03.2         x18.7 VqNEOCPG96
     XV902A4  C2016 11 11.39825 04 29 09.79 +10 54 16.1         x18.3 VqNEOCPG96
     XV902A4  C2016 11 11.40277 04 29 37.64 +10 56 33.5         x18.3 VqNEOCPG96
     XV902A4  C2016 11 11.44967 04 34 57.96 +11 19 44.5         x            G96
     XV902A4  C2016 11 11.44991 04 34 59.85 +11 19 51.8         x18.1 V      G96
     XV902A4  C2016 11 11.45015 04 35 01.55 +11 19 58.3         x            G96
     XV902A4  C2016 11 11.45039 04 35 03.37 +11 20 05.1         x18.4 V      G96
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.43356 03 54 56.57 +09 05 53.2          18.1 V D0552G96
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.43372 03 54 57.37 +09 05 57.1          18.2 V D0552G96
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.43388 03 54 58.13 +09 06 01.1          18.3 V D0552G96
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.43405 03 54 58.97 +09 06 04.7          18.2 V D0552G96
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.45396 03 56 40.74 +09 13 52.1          18.0 V D0552G96
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.45414 03 56 41.72 +09 13 56.3          18.1 V D0552G96
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.45431 03 56 42.58 +09 14 00.2          18.2 V D0552G96
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.45956803 56 57.82 +09 10 25.0          17.8 V D0552H01
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.46247103 57 14.19 +09 11 29.9          18.1 V D0552H01
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.46902603 57 51.81 +09 13 54.9          17.7 V D0552H01
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.47892 03 58 58.59 +09 23 08.9          18.1 V D0552G96
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.47908 03 58 59.55 +09 23 12.5          18.1 V D0552G96
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.47925 03 59 00.48 +09 23 16.1          18.0 V D0552G96
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.47941 03 59 01.38 +09 23 19.7          18.1 V D0552G96
     XW99CEC KC2016 11 19.47953 03 59 03.64 +09 25 02.2          18.3 R D0552291
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.47993303 58 56.27 +09 17 52.4          17.8 V D0552H01
     XW99CEC KC2016 11 19.48010 03 59 06.90 +09 25 14.7          18.3 R D0552291
     XW99CEC KC2016 11 19.48070 03 59 10.38 +09 25 28.0          18.2 R D0552291
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.49818 04 00 53.43 +09 29 58.7                 D0552G96
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.49834 04 00 54.48 +09 30 02.2          18.2 V D0552G96
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.49851 04 00 55.48 +09 30 05.8          18.1 V D0552G96
     XW99CEC  C2016 11 19.49870 04 00 56.73 +09 30 09.9          18.3 V D0552G96

Station data:
(291) LPL/Spacewatch II (N31.961626 W111.599100)  US/Arizona.  1.8-m f/2.7
    reflector + CCD.
(G96) Mt. Lemmon Survey (N32.442751 W110.788720)  US/Arizona.   Observers E.
    J. Christensen, A. R. Gibbs, A. D. Grauer, R. E. Hill, J. A. Johnson, R. A.
    Kowalski, S. M. Larson, F. C. Shelly.  1.5-m reflector + CCD.
(H01) Magdalena Ridge Observatory, Socorro (N33.985148 W107.189200)  US/New Mexico.
      Observers W. H. Ryan, E. V. Ryan.  Measurer W. H. Ryan.  2.4-m f/8.9
    reflector + CCD.

Orbital elements:  XV902A4
   Perigee 2016 Nov 18.323245 +/- 0.00669 TT =  7:45:28 (JD 2457710.823245)
Epoch 2016 Nov 19.0 TT = JDT 2457711.5                        Find_Orb
M 116.874202 +/- 0.9                (J2000 equatorial)
n 172.697909557 +/- 0.301           Peri.  213.327817 +/- 0.12
a 68930.60957 +/- 80.1              Node    26.376258 +/- 0.044
e   0.80239288 +/- 0.000305         Incl.   18.052713 +/- 0.0031
P3001.72m/2.085d           H 33.0   G  0.15   U 11.9
q 13621.17907 +/- 36    Q 124240.0400 +/- 126
22 of 30 observations 2016 Nov. 19 (93.8 min); mean residual 0".290
Residuals in arcseconds: 
161111 G96(9720- 2473-)   161119 G96 .251- .203+    161119 G96 .030- .156-
161111 G96(9657- 2454-)   161119 G96 .249- .282-    161119 G96 .384- .026-
161111 G96(9598- 2437-)   161119 G96 .091- .193-    161119 291 .497- .129-
161111 G96(9539- 2420-)   161119 G96 .326+ .120-    161119 H01 .405+ .118+
161111 G96(8738- 2197-)   161119 G96 .258- .117-    161119 291 .582- 6.7m+
161111 G96(8732- 2195-)   161119 H01 .247+ .125+    161119 291 .060- .307+
161111 G96(8729- 2194-)   161119 H01 3.5m+ .083+    161119 G96 .460- .254-
161111 G96(8723- 2193-)   161119 H01 .291+ .104-    161119 G96 .471+ .092-
161119 G96 .040+ 4.2m-    161119 G96 .177+ .196-    161119 G96 .259- .039-
161119 G96 .194+ .049+    161119 G96 .726+ .068-    161119 G96 .871+ .099+

Ephemerides (geocentric):
Date (UTC) HH   RA              Dec         delta   r     elong  mag " sig PA
---- -- -- --  ------------   ------------  ------ ------ -----  --- ---- ---
2016 11 19 19  04 51 55.655   +13 19 38.63  109641 .98878 162.0 18.3  108  75
2016 11 19 20  04 58 57.475   +13 41 37.37  106516 .98875 160.6 18.2  142  75
2016 11 19 21  05 06 27.731   +14 04 11.41  103041 .98871 159.0 18.2  184  76
2016 11 19 22  05 14 32.829   +14 27 27.11   99195 .98867 157.3 18.2  235  77
2016 11 19 23  05 23 21.096   +14 51 31.15   94954 .98863 155.4 18.2  299  78
2016 11 20 00  05 33 03.647   +15 16 30.21   90288 .98858 153.3 18.1  381  79
2016 11 20 01  05 43 55.776   +15 42 30.07   85160 .98853 150.9 18.1  485  80
2016 11 20 02  05 56 19.289   +16 09 33.50   79525 .98848 148.1 18.0  624  81
2016 11 20 03  06 10 46.670   +16 37 35.15   73325 .98842 144.8 17.9  814  82
2016 11 20 04  06 28 09.010   +17 06 08.74   66484 .98836 140.9 17.8 1085  83
2016 11 20 05  06 49 52.508   +17 33 52.56   58905 .98829 135.9 17.7 1500  85
2016 11 20 06  07 18 36.970   +17 56 44.61   50455 .98821 129.3 17.5 2191  87
2016 11 20 07  08 00 00.679   +18 01 45.19   40965 .98812 119.7 17.3 3513  91
2016 11 20 08  09 08 35.184   +16 57 37.29   30267 .98803 103.7 17.2 6668  96
2016 11 20 09  11 33 54.828   +10 02 57.91   18838 .98792  68.4 17.8 289' 105
2016 11 20 10  17 29 01.090   -15 06 24.58   14196 .98788  25.4 22?? 543' 100
2016 11 20 11  21 55 42.244   -15 22 06.09   23909 .98795  87.4 17.3 182'  81
2016 11 20 12  23 32 27.414   -10 08 15.46   35212 .98803 111.1 17.3 4514  75
2016 11 20 13  00 21 55.879   -06 37 47.87   45358 .98811 123.6 17.5 2383  74
2016 11 20 14  00 53 37.070   -04 10 57.24   54360 .98817 131.6 17.6 1421  73
2016 11 20 15  01 16 32.443   -02 20 57.81   62401 .98823 137.4 17.8  898  73
2016 11 20 16  01 34 24.097   -00 54 00.88   69636 .98828 141.8 17.9  577  74
2016 11 20 17  01 49 01.578   +00 17 30.34   76179 .98833 145.5 18.0  364  75
2016 11 20 18  02 01 25.991   +01 18 07.64   82118 .98837 148.5 18.0  214  77
2016 11 20 19  02 12 14.535   +02 10 43.47   87519 .98840 151.1 18.1  104  81
2016 11 20 20  02 21 51.392   +02 57 13.10   92434 .98843 153.4 18.2   24 108
2016 11 20 21  02 30 33.106   +03 38 56.87   96905 .98846 155.5 18.2   46  56
2016 11 20 22  02 38 31.471   +04 16 52.84  100965 .98849 157.3 18.2   96  65
2016 11 20 23  02 45 55.191   +04 51 44.17  104641 .98851 159.0 18.3  138  68
2016 11 21 00  02 52 50.877   +05 24 03.79  107956 .98853 160.5 18.3  172  69
2016 11 21 01  02 59 23.682   +05 54 17.38  110929 .98855 161.9 18.3  200  70
2016 11 21 02  03 05 37.718   +06 22 45.38  113574 .98856 163.1 18.3  223  71
2016 11 21 03  03 11 36.340   +06 49 44.31  115906 .98857 164.3 18.3  243  71
2016 11 21 04  03 17 22.334   +07 15 27.78  117935 .98858 165.4 18.3  260  72
2016 11 21 05  03 22 58.072   +07 40 07.15  119670 .98859 166.4 18.3  274  72
2016 11 21 06  03 28 25.603   +08 03 52.05  121118 .98859 167.2 18.3  286  73
2016 11 21 07  03 33 46.743   +08 26 50.76  122285 .98859 168.0 18.3  296  73
2016 11 21 08  03 39 03.128   +08 49 10.51  123176 .98859 168.6 18.3  304  73
2016 11 21 09  03 44 16.271   +09 10 57.69  123795 .98859 169.2 18.3  311  74
2016 11 21 10  03 49 27.598   +09 32 18.04  124143 .98859 169.5 18.3  316  74
2016 11 21 11  03 54 38.486   +09 53 16.79  124223 .98858 169.8 18.3  321  74
2016 11 21 12  03 59 50.299   +10 13 58.79  124034 .98857 169.9 18.3  324  75
2016 11 21 13  04 05 04.414   +10 34 28.59  123576 .98856 169.8 18.2  326  75
2016 11 21 14  04 10 22.260   +10 54 50.57  122846 .98855 169.5 18.2  327  76
2016 11 21 15  04 15 45.351   +11 15 08.97  121843 .98853 169.1 18.2  327  76
2016 11 21 16  04 21 15.326   +11 35 28.01  120562 .98851 168.6 18.2  326  76
2016 11 21 17  04 26 54.001   +11 55 51.92  118998 .98849 167.9 18.2  324  77
2016 11 21 18  04 32 43.420   +12 16 25.06  117144 .98847 167.1 18.2  321  77
2016 11 21 19  04 38 45.941   +12 37 11.94  114993 .98844 166.1 18.2  316  78
2016 11 21 20  04 45 04.326   +12 58 17.33  112535 .98842 165.0 18.2  310  78
2016 11 21 21  04 51 41.874   +13 19 46.33  109757 .98839 163.8 18.2  302  79
2016 11 21 22  04 58 42.608   +13 41 44.39  106647 .98835 162.5 18.2  293  79
2016 11 21 23  05 06 11.521   +14 04 17.43  103187 .98832 161.0 18.2  281  80
2016 11 22 00  05 14 14.952   +14 27 31.79   99356 .98828 159.3 18.1  266  81
2016 11 22 01  05 23 01.137   +14 51 34.17   95132 .98824 157.4 18.1  248  82
2016 11 22 02  05 32 41.051   +15 16 31.26   90484 .98819 155.4 18.1  224  83
2016 11 22 03  05 43 29.781   +15 42 28.92   85375 .98814 153.0 18.0  194  85
2016 11 22 04  05 55 48.805   +16 09 30.14   79761 .98809 150.2 17.9  155  87
2016 11 22 05  06 10 10.058   +16 37 30.07   73584 .98803 147.0 17.8  102  92
2016 11 22 06  06 27 23.654   +17 06 03.76   66769 .98797 143.1 17.7   30 119
2016 11 22 07  06 48 53.882   +17 33 53.01   59220 .98790 138.2 17.6   91  73
2016 11 22 08  07 17 16.363   +17 57 06.28   50806 .98782 131.7 17.5  276  83
2016 11 22 09  07 57 58.566   +18 03 21.24   41357 .98774 122.3 17.3  623  89
2016 11 22 10  09 04 56.749   +17 04 16.87   30702 .98764 106.6 17.1 1431  95
2016 11 22 11  11 25 15.694   +10 37 33.15   19246 .98753  72.6 17.6 4058 104
2016 11 22 12  17 13 18.589   -14 24 59.63   14016 .98748  20.0 23?? 7388 101
2016 11 22 13  21 50 26.391   -15 35 39.44   23464 .98754  84.1 17.4 1935  82
2016 11 22 14  23 30 18.464   -10 17 20.59   34805 .98762 108.5 17.3  416  79
2016 11 22 15  00 20 45.382   -06 43 27.77   45001 .98770 121.2 17.5   70  51
2016 11 22 16  00 52 52.061   -04 14 43.45   54045 .98776 129.3 17.7  276  67
2016 11 22 17  01 16 00.953   -02 23 36.09   62121 .98782 135.2 17.8  386  69
2016 11 22 18  01 34 00.698   -00 55 55.27   69385 .98787 139.7 17.9  452  69
2016 11 22 19  01 48 43.426   +00 16 06.10   75953 .98792 143.4 18.0  494  70
2016 11 22 20  02 01 11.433   +01 17 05.12   81915 .98796 146.5 18.1  524  70
2016 11 22 21  02 12 02.537   +02 09 57.17   87336 .98800 149.1 18.2  545  70
2016 11 22 22  02 21 41.269   +02 56 39.25   92270 .98803 151.4 18.2  561  71
2016 11 22 23  02 30 24.379   +03 38 32.82   96758 .98806 153.5 18.3  573  71
2016 11 23 00  02 38 23.796   +04 16 36.61  100834 .98808 155.4 18.3  583  71
2016 11 23 01  02 45 48.308   +04 51 34.29  104525 .98811 157.1 18.3  590  71
2016 11 23 02  02 52 44.586   +05 23 59.10  107854 .98813 158.7 18.3  597  72
2016 11 23 03  02 59 17.823   +05 54 16.99  110841 .98814 160.1 18.3  603  72
2016 11 23 04  03 05 32.163   +06 22 48.54  113500 .98816 161.5 18.4  608  72
2016 11 23 05  03 11 30.977   +06 49 50.42  115845 .98817 162.7 18.4  612  72
2016 11 23 06  03 17 17.071   +07 15 36.34  117886 .98818 163.9 18.4  616  73
2016 11 23 07  03 22 52.824   +07 40 17.72  119634 .98819 164.9 18.4  620  73
2016 11 23 08  03 28 20.296   +08 04 04.26  121094 .98819 165.9 18.3  623  73
2016 11 23 09  03 33 41.305   +08 27 04.29  122274 .98820 166.8 18.3  627  74
2016 11 23 10  03 38 57.493   +08 49 25.06  123177 .98820 167.6 18.3  630  74
2016 11 23 11  03 44 10.372   +09 11 12.99  123808 .98820 168.3 18.3  634  74
2016 11 23 12  03 49 21.368   +09 32 33.85  124169 .98819 168.9 18.3  637  74
2016 11 23 13  03 54 31.858   +09 53 32.87  124261 .98819 169.4 18.3  641  75
2016 11 23 14  03 59 43.200   +10 14 14.91  124085 .98818 169.8 18.3  645  75
2016 11 23 15  04 04 56.768   +10 34 44.55  123640 .98817 170.0 18.2  650  75
2016 11 23 16  04 10 13.984   +10 55 06.14  122924 .98816 170.0 18.2  655  76
2016 11 23 17  04 15 36.354   +11 15 23.95  121934 .98814 169.9 18.2  660  76
2016 11 23 18  04 21 05.506   +11 35 42.17  120667 .98813 169.5 18.2  666  76
2016 11 23 19  04 26 43.239   +11 56 05.04  119117 .98811 169.1 18.2  673  77
2016 11 23 20  04 32 31.582   +12 16 36.89  117278 .98808 168.4 18.2  681  77
2016 11 23 21  04 38 32.868   +12 37 22.25  115142 .98806 167.6 18.2  690  77
2016 11 23 22  04 44 49.829   +12 58 25.84  112700 .98803 166.7 18.2  700  78