[Neocp_artsats] A11hSI1, A11hSI4 = Blue Ghost/Hakuto-R objects

Bill Gray pluto at projectpluto.com
Mon Jan 20 10:25:28 EST 2025


    This launch resulted in four objects in the Space-Track catalogue, 
2025-010A, B, C, and D.  These are the two spacecraft,  plus the Falcon 
9 upper stage,  and a bit of debris from the Falcon 9.

    Scott Tilley located what we assume to be the the Falcon 9 upper 
stage yesterday :

https://groups.io/g/DSTL/message/61

    "about 45 arcminutes from the TLE prediction".  It was tumbling, 
which does make it unlikely to be either spacecraft.

    I can,  and have,  linked both tracklets to Scott's singleton 
observation.  A11hSI1 results in a plausible-looking elliptical 
geocentric orbit,  with all elements looking about as you'd expect for a 
non-escape orbit.  Critically,  the perigee time is about right;  that 
makes me slightly more confident that this isn't a garbage match.  Only 
slightly,  though;  we have four objects going on similar trajectories, 
some of which may maneuver,  and it's easy to get false linkages to a 
singleton observation :

https://projectpluto.com/temp/a11hsi1.htm

    A11hSI4 results in a somewhat less plausible hyperbolic orbit. 
Still,  if our friends at SpaceX lit up the engines for a disposal 
orbit,  this may be the correct linkage :

https://projectpluto.com/temp/a11hsi4.htm

    Not wanting to collide with the existing A, B, C, D designations, 
I've added these as 2025-010E and F.  You can get ephems from my Web site at

https://www.projectpluto.com/sat_eph.htm

    You may find both objects relatively near the given ephemerides.  Or 
it could be the object Scott saw was something completely different. 
Further data may allow me to figure out which object is which.

-- Bill



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