[Neocp_artsats] Heads up : Three heliocentric launches, Oct 4, 7, 10

[Bill Gray]

Hello all,

    (1) The second Vulcan Centaur was launched into heliocentric orbit 
at 11:25 UTC this morning :

https://x.com/planet4589/status/1842189109105955219

    As Jonathan remarks in the comments,  we have only a vague idea of 
where it's going.  Trajectories for the KuiperSat Centaur 2023-154C and 
for the Peregrine Centaur 2024-006B were similarly considered "secret". 
In both of those cases,  somebody eventually stumbled across them and 
they ended up on NEOCP.

    Jonathan tells me the escape burn was planned for 10:34 UTC,  over 
Namibia heading southeast,  inclination "something like 28 to 30 
degrees".  Obviously,  it had to be sometime later than that.  If it was 
around noon UTC (half an hour after launch),  I think it'll come out at 
an elongation in the evening sky where the surveys might pick it up.

    If we pick up an object in the next few days that had an 
ionosphere-scraping perigee near October 4.5,  we've probably got the 
object.

    This was a test flight,  with a dummy payload.  I'm not clear on 
where the payload ended up.  If it's geocentric,  it may show up in the 
Space-Track TLEs.  If not,  we may find _two_ objects,  not necessarily 
close together in the sky.  (The Vulcan Centaur is supposed to place its 
payload,  then run the engines to depletion.)

    This business of launching objects in "secret" orbits may become 
annoying;  the plan is for plenty of Vulcan Centaur launches in the 
coming years.  Jonathan points out that I'm not alone in finding this to 
be a problem :

https://aas.org/sites/default/files/2024-09/AAS%20Statment%20on%20Spaceflight%20Transparency.pdf

    (2) Hera will (fingers crossed) be launched on Monday,  2024 Oct 7. 
We have ephems for this object on Horizons;  it could be picked up by 
asteroid hunters,  assuming they look a little closer to the sun than usual.

    (3) Europa Clipper will (remaining fingers crossed) be launched on 
Thursday,  2024 Oct 10.  Similar comments : ephems on Horizons,  visible 
at slightly low elongations.