"Pseudo-MPEC" for MSL-Centaur

Created Thu Jul 18 20:47:20 2013 using Find_Orb

You can click here for data on the Mars Science Laboratory astrometry and orbit solutions.

As you can see from the Mars-centered elements, the Centaur stage from MSL looks to miss the planet by about a million kilometers.

Astrometry:
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 29.14505 08 18 52.54 +00 25 36.3                 D0394J43
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 29.15499 08 18 47.73 +00 25 52.3                 D0394J43
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 29.16496 08 18 42.89 +00 26 07.1                 D0394J43
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 29.17492 08 18 38.05 +00 26 22.1                 D0394J43
MSL-Centaur  KC2011 11 29.43766808 18 53.06 +00 29 47.7          16.9 R D0394H36
MSL-Centaur  KC2011 11 29.43845408 18 52.79 +00 29 48.8          16.7 R D0394H36
MSL-Centaur  KC2011 11 29.44478208 18 50.20 +00 29 57.6          16.9 R D0394H36
MSL-Centaur  %C2011 11 29.48738 08 18 45.33 +00 32 56.1          16.4 R D0394H06
MSL-Centaur  %C2011 11 29.49447 08 18 42.45 +00 33 05.1          16.3 R D0394H06
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 29.50456 08 18 38.29 +00 33 16.5          16.3 R D0394H15
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 29.50983 08 18 36.22 +00 33 22.9          16.0 R D0394H15
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 29.51219 08 18 35.32 +00 33 26.0          17.0 R D0394H15
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 29.62477 08 19 39.34 +01 04 30.2          16.7 R D0394474
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 29.62580 08 19 39.01 +01 04 31.0          16.3 R D0394474
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 29.62672 08 19 38.68 +01 04 31.5          16.3 R D0394474
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 29.64201 08 19 33.60 +01 04 42.2                 D0394474
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 29.64281 08 19 33.33 +01 04 42.3          17   R D0394474
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 29.64362 08 19 33.07 +01 04 42.7                 D0394474
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 29.64455 08 19 32.74 +01 04 43.6                 D0394474
MSL-Centaur  KC2011 11 30.03467 08 20 18.80 +00 37 43.6          17.5 T D0395J95
MSL-Centaur  KC2011 11 30.03799 08 20 18.18 +00 37 47.0          17.9 T D0395J95
MSL-Centaur  KC2011 11 30.06177 08 20 13.39 +00 38 11.3          17.1 T D0395J95
MSL-Centaur  KC2011 11 30.06500 08 20 12.72 +00 38 14.2          16.6 T D0395J95
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 30.42683 08 20 16.47 +00 48 24.3          17.4 V D0395703
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 30.43431 08 20 13.84 +00 48 29.7          18.1 V D0395703
MSL-Centaur   C2011 11 30.44942 08 20 08.59 +00 48 41.3          17.3 V D0395703

Station data:
(474) Mount John Observatory, Lake Tekapo (S43.98746 E170.46496).   Observers
    A. C. Gilmore, P. M. Kilmartin.
(703) Catalina Sky Survey (N32.41712 W110.73264).   Observers S. Larson, E.
    Beshore, E. Christensen, R. Hill, S. Howard, D. McLean.
(H06) iTelescope Observatory, Mayhill (N32.90343 W105.52870).   Observer K.
    Sokolovsky.  0.25-m f/3.4 reflector + CCD.
(H15) ISON-NM Observatory, Mayhill (N32.90336 W105.52844).
(H36) Sandlot Observatory, Scranton (N38.7977 W95.7064).   Observer G. Hug.
(J43) Oukaimeden Observatory, Marrakech (N31.20655 W7.86646).   Observer C.
    Rinner.
(J95) Great Shefford (N51.47502 W1.44700).

Orbital elements (near launch):  MSL-Centaur
   Perigee 2011 Nov 26.653650 +/- 0.00722 TT = 15:41:15 (JD 2455892.153650)
Epoch 2011 Nov 27.0 TT = JDT 2455892.5                        Find_Orb
q  6356.82250 +/- 6.68
H   25.9  G 0.15                    Peri.  213.81660 +/- 0.06
                                    Node   123.76278 +/- 0.010
e   1.1679606 +/- 0.000806          Incl.   35.15856 +/- 0.019
From 26 observations 2011 Nov. 29-30 (31.3 hr); mean residual 0".370.
LAUNCH at  26 Nov 2011 15:41:07.85 lat -15.54949 lon E26.62020

Orbital elements (post-launch, heliocentric cruise phase):  MSL-Centaur 
   Perihelion 2011 Nov 17.246854 +/- 0.00549 TT =  5:55:28 (JD 2455882.746854)
Epoch 2011 Nov 30.0 TT = JDT 2455895.5   Earth MOID: 0.0000   Ma: 0.0062
M   8.83398 +/- 0.0048                                        Find_Orb
n   0.69269073 +/- 0.000692         Peri.  170.07661 +/- 0.019
a   1.26505612 +/- 0.000842         Node   243.33223 +/- 0.010
e   0.2219618 +/- 0.000531          Incl.    1.73078 +/- 0.0042
P   1.42/519.70d           H 25.9   G  0.15   U  7.9
q 0.98426198 +/- 1.62e-5    Q 1.54585026 +/- 0.00164
From 26 observations 2011 Nov. 29-30 (31.3 hr); mean residual 0".370.

Orbital elements (near Mars):  MSL-Centaur 
   Perimars 2012 Aug 15.595801 +/- 0.198 TT = 14:17:57 (JD 2456155.095801)
Epoch 2012 Aug 15.5 TT = JDT 2456155.0                        Find_Orb
q   0.00842801 +/- 0.00424
H   25.9  G 0.15                    Peri.   92.10466 +/- 0.9
                                    Node   276.45939 +/- 0.24
e 321.7696979 +/- 173               Incl.   87.26328 +/- 1.2
From 26 observations 2011 Nov. 29-30 (31.3 hr); mean residual 0".370.

Residuals in arcseconds:
111129 J43 .172+ .002-    111129 H15 .885- .191-    111129 474 .280+ .188+
111129 J43 .024+ .505+    111129 H15 .915- .167-    111130 J95 .463+ .214+
111129 J43 .024+ .089-    111129 H15 .715- .088+    111130 J95 .270+ .169+
111129 J43 .021- .323-    111129 474 .000  .494-    111130 J95 .191- .033+
111129 H36 .097+ .291-    111129 474 .122+ .367-    111130 J95 .219+ .353-
111129 H36 .753+ .232-    111129 474 .287- .466-    111130 703 .254- .319+
111129 H36 .403- .215+    111129 474 .239+ .399+    111130 703 .592- .088-
111129 H06 .071- .427+    111129 474 .260+ .009-    111130 703 .330+ .073-
111129 H06 .599+ .712+    111129 474 .486+ .123-

Ephemerides:
Date (UT)  HH   RA              Dec         delta   r     elong  mag   rvel
---- -- -- --  ------------   ------------  ------ ------ -----  --- ------
2011 11 27 00  07 57 14.121   -03 07 46.62  144142 .98737 119.2 13.0  3.975
2011 11 27 04  08 04 10.074   -01 54 46.64  199923 .98750 118.3 13.7  3.792
2011 11 27 08  08 08 06.208   -01 13 09.17  253708 .98763 117.8 14.3  3.687
2011 11 27 12  08 10 40.142   -00 45 54.98  306255 .98776 117.6 14.7  3.617
2011 11 27 16  08 12 29.040   -00 26 34.13  357951 .98788 117.5 15.0  3.567
2011 11 27 20  08 13 50.382   -00 12 02.83  409023 .98801 117.4 15.3  3.529
2011 11 28 00  08 14 53.546   -00 00 42.36  459618 .98814 117.4 15.6  3.500
2011 11 28 04  08 15 44.043   +00 08 25.32  509834 .98826 117.4 15.8  3.476
2011 11 28 08  08 16 25.340   +00 15 56.67  559743 .98839 117.5 16.0  3.457
2011 11 28 12  08 16 59.730   +00 22 15.85  609398 .98852 117.5 16.2  3.441
2011 11 28 16  08 17 28.792   +00 27 39.49  658837 .98865 117.6 16.4  3.427
2011 11 28 20  08 17 53.655   +00 32 19.46  708094 .98878 117.7 16.5  3.415
2011 11 29 00  08 18 15.146   +00 36 24.45  757192 .98891 117.8 16.6  3.405
2011 11 29 04  08 18 33.882   +00 40 00.97  806152 .98905 117.9 16.8  3.396
2011 11 29 08  08 18 50.341   +00 43 14.03  854991 .98918 118.1 16.9  3.388
2011 11 29 12  08 19 04.891   +00 46 07.51  903721 .98932 118.2 17.0  3.381
2011 11 29 16  08 19 17.824   +00 48 44.48  952356 .98946 118.3 17.1  3.375
2011 11 29 20  08 19 29.376   +00 51 07.42  .00669 .98960 118.4 17.2  3.369
2011 11 30 00  08 19 39.736   +00 53 18.31  .00701 .98974 118.6 17.3  3.364
2011 11 30 04  08 19 49.061   +00 55 18.81  .00734 .98988 118.7 17.4  3.359
2011 11 30 08  08 19 57.479   +00 57 10.27  .00766 0.9900 118.8 17.5  3.355
2011 11 30 12  08 20 05.098   +00 58 53.82  .00798 0.9902 119.0 17.6  3.351
2011 11 30 16  08 20 12.008   +01 00 30.42  .00831 0.9903 119.1 17.7  3.347
2011 11 30 20  08 20 18.288   +01 02 00.89  .00863 0.9905 119.3 17.8  3.344
2011 12 01 00  08 20 24.001   +01 03 25.91  .00895 0.9906 119.4 17.8  3.341
2011 12 01 04  08 20 29.205   +01 04 46.09  .00927 0.9908 119.6 17.9  3.338
2011 12 01 08  08 20 33.948   +01 06 01.93  .00959 0.9909 119.7 18.0  3.335
2011 12 01 12  08 20 38.273   +01 07 13.89  .00991 0.9911 119.9 18.0  3.333
2011 12 01 16  08 20 42.215   +01 08 22.35  .01023 0.9912 120.0 18.1  3.330
2011 12 01 20  08 20 45.807   +01 09 27.67  .01055 0.9914 120.2 18.2  3.328
2011 12 02 00  08 20 49.077   +01 10 30.13  .01087 0.9916 120.3 18.2  3.326
2011 12 02 04  08 20 52.050   +01 11 30.02  .01119 0.9917 120.5 18.3  3.324
2011 12 02 08  08 20 54.749   +01 12 27.57  .01151 0.9919 120.6 18.3  3.322
2011 12 02 12  08 20 57.192   +01 13 22.98  .01183 0.9921 120.8 18.4  3.321
2011 12 02 16  08 20 59.397   +01 14 16.46  .01215 0.9922 120.9 18.5  3.319
2011 12 02 20  08 21 01.380   +01 15 08.17  .01247 0.9924 121.1 18.5  3.318
2011 12 03 00  08 21 03.155   +01 15 58.27  .01279 0.9926 121.2 18.6  3.316
2011 12 03 04  08 21 04.734   +01 16 46.89  .01311 0.9927 121.4 18.6  3.315
2011 12 03 08  08 21 06.128   +01 17 34.17  .01343 0.9929 121.6 18.7  3.313
2011 12 03 12  08 21 07.348   +01 18 20.21  .01375 0.9931 121.7 18.7  3.312
2011 12 03 16  08 21 08.403   +01 19 05.12  .01407 0.9933 121.9 18.7  3.311
2011 12 03 20  08 21 09.302   +01 19 49.00  .01439 0.9934 122.0 18.8  3.310
2011 12 04 00  08 21 10.051   +01 20 31.93  .01471 0.9936 122.2 18.8  3.309
2011 12 04 04  08 21 10.658   +01 21 13.99  .01502 0.9938 122.4 18.9  3.307
2011 12 04 08  08 21 11.129   +01 21 55.26  .01534 0.9940 122.5 18.9  3.306
2011 12 04 12  08 21 11.470   +01 22 35.81  .01566 0.9942 122.7 19.0  3.305
2011 12 04 16  08 21 11.685   +01 23 15.69  .01598 0.9944 122.8 19.0  3.305
2011 12 04 20  08 21 11.780   +01 23 54.97  .01630 0.9945 123.0 19.0  3.304
2011 12 05 00  08 21 11.760   +01 24 33.70  .01661 0.9947 123.2 19.1  3.303
2011 12 05 04  08 21 11.627   +01 25 11.94  .01693 0.9949 123.3 19.1  3.302
2011 12 05 08  08 21 11.386   +01 25 49.71  .01725 0.9951 123.5 19.1  3.301
2011 12 05 12  08 21 11.041   +01 26 27.08  .01757 0.9953 123.7 19.2  3.300
2011 12 05 16  08 21 10.593   +01 27 04.08  .01789 0.9955 123.8 19.2  3.300
2011 12 05 20  08 21 10.047   +01 27 40.75  .01820 0.9957 124.0 19.2  3.299
2011 12 06 00  08 21 09.404   +01 28 17.12  .01852 0.9959 124.2 19.3  3.298
2011 12 06 04  08 21 08.667   +01 28 53.23  .01884 0.9961 124.3 19.3  3.297
2011 12 06 08  08 21 07.839   +01 29 29.11  .01916 0.9963 124.5 19.3  3.297
2011 12 06 12  08 21 06.921   +01 30 04.79  .01947 0.9965 124.6 19.4  3.296
2011 12 06 16  08 21 05.915   +01 30 40.30  .01979 0.9967 124.8 19.4  3.296
2011 12 06 20  08 21 04.823   +01 31 15.66  .02011 0.9969 125.0 19.4  3.295