[neo_followup] Last call for observations of possible comet/tj<3 object P10ZhFN (V ~= 21.3)
Sam Deen
planetaryscience at yahoo.com
Sat May 2 19:06:51 EDT 2020
Hi all,
P10ZhFN on the NEOCP currently has an arc of 2 days, from just 7 observations from F51 and L01. Based on these 7 observations, it fits quite well to a high-eccentricity orbit (CNEOS Scout listing below):
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/scout/#/object/P10ZhFN
While the object's perihelion is constrained to ~0.4 to ~0.5 AU, the eccentricity is still quite uncertain. There's a 75% chance its orbit crosses Jupiter, and a roughly 40% chance its orbit crosses Saturn. At the present moment, its positional uncertainty is about 10-40 arcminutes, and if not recovered in the next day or two, will likely be completely lost if it isn't already.
Geocentric ephemerides for the next two days with the nominal orbit:
#Geocentric
Date (UTC) HH RA Dec delta r elong mag '/hr PA " sig PA
---- -- -- -- ------------- ----------- ------ ------ ----- --- ------ ------ ---- ---
2020 05 02 22 18 28 32.131 +15 57 04.76 .40578 1.2385 115.6 21.4 4.06 45.7 2460 51
2020 05 03 00 18 28 56.409 +16 02 45.96 .40472 1.2374 115.5 21.4 4.08 45.7 2512 51
2020 05 03 02 18 29 20.811 +16 08 28.58 .40367 1.2363 115.4 21.4 4.10 45.8 2566 51
2020 05 03 04 18 29 45.337 +16 14 12.62 .40262 1.2353 115.3 21.4 4.12 45.8 2620 51
2020 05 03 06 18 30 09.990 +16 19 58.08 .40157 1.2342 115.3 21.4 4.14 45.8 2675 51
2020 05 03 08 18 30 34.771 +16 25 44.98 .40052 1.2331 115.2 21.4 4.15 45.8 2730 51
2020 05 03 10 18 30 59.679 +16 31 33.31 .39948 1.2320 115.1 21.4 4.17 45.8 2786 51
2020 05 03 12 18 31 24.717 +16 37 23.09 .39844 1.2310 115.0 21.4 4.19 45.8 2844 51
2020 05 03 14 18 31 49.885 +16 43 14.31 .39740 1.2299 115.0 21.4 4.21 45.8 2901 51
2020 05 03 16 18 32 15.185 +16 49 06.99 .39636 1.2288 114.9 21.4 4.23 45.9 2960 51
2020 05 03 18 18 32 40.618 +16 55 01.12 .39532 1.2278 114.8 21.4 4.25 45.9 3020 51
2020 05 03 20 18 33 06.185 +17 00 56.71 .39429 1.2267 114.7 21.4 4.27 45.9 3080 51
2020 05 03 22 18 33 31.887 +17 06 53.77 .39326 1.2256 114.7 21.3 4.29 45.9 3141 51
2020 05 04 00 18 33 57.725 +17 12 52.30 .39223 1.2245 114.6 21.3 4.30 45.9 3203 51
2020 05 04 02 18 34 23.701 +17 18 52.31 .39121 1.2235 114.5 21.3 4.32 46.0 3265 51
2020 05 04 04 18 34 49.816 +17 24 53.81 .39019 1.2224 114.4 21.3 4.34 46.0 3329 51
2020 05 04 06 18 35 16.070 +17 30 56.78 .38917 1.2213 114.3 21.3 4.36 46.0 3393 51
2020 05 04 08 18 35 42.466 +17 37 01.25 .38815 1.2202 114.2 21.3 4.38 46.0 3458 51
2020 05 04 10 18 36 09.004 +17 43 07.21 .38713 1.2192 114.2 21.3 4.40 46.0 3524 51
2020 05 04 12 18 36 35.686 +17 49 14.68 .38612 1.2181 114.1 21.3 4.42 46.1 3591 51
2020 05 04 14 18 37 02.512 +17 55 23.65 .38511 1.2170 114.0 21.3 4.44 46.1 3658 51
2020 05 04 16 18 37 29.485 +18 01 34.12 .38410 1.2159 113.9 21.3 4.46 46.1 3727 51
2020 05 04 18 18 37 56.606 +18 07 46.11 .38309 1.2149 113.8 21.3 4.48 46.1 3796 51
2020 05 04 20 18 38 23.875 +18 13 59.62 .38209 1.2138 113.7 21.3 4.50 46.1 3867 51
Geocentric ephemerides fitting a parabolic orbit:
#Geocentric
Date (UTC) HH RA Dec delta r elong mag '/hr PA " sig PA
---- -- -- -- ------------- ----------- ------ ------ ----- --- ------ ------ ---- ---
2020 05 02 22 18 29 52.522 +16 12 31.42 .49048 1.2950 115.2 21.3 4.33 46.1 1080 47
2020 05 03 00 18 30 18.607 +16 18 32.97 .48907 1.2936 115.1 21.3 4.36 46.1 1106 47
2020 05 03 02 18 30 44.845 +16 24 36.22 .48766 1.2921 115.0 21.3 4.38 46.1 1132 47
2020 05 03 04 18 31 11.237 +16 30 41.19 .48625 1.2906 114.9 21.3 4.40 46.1 1158 47
2020 05 03 06 18 31 37.785 +16 36 47.88 .48485 1.2892 114.8 21.3 4.42 46.2 1185 47
2020 05 03 08 18 32 04.490 +16 42 56.31 .48344 1.2877 114.7 21.3 4.44 46.2 1212 47
2020 05 03 10 18 32 31.355 +16 49 06.47 .48205 1.2862 114.7 21.3 4.47 46.2 1239 47
2020 05 03 12 18 32 58.379 +16 55 18.37 .48065 1.2847 114.6 21.3 4.49 46.2 1267 47
2020 05 03 14 18 33 25.566 +17 01 32.03 .47926 1.2833 114.5 21.3 4.51 46.2 1296 47
2020 05 03 16 18 33 52.916 +17 07 47.44 .47787 1.2818 114.4 21.3 4.54 46.3 1325 47
2020 05 03 18 18 34 20.431 +17 14 04.63 .47649 1.2803 114.3 21.3 4.56 46.3 1354 47
2020 05 03 20 18 34 48.113 +17 20 23.58 .47511 1.2788 114.2 21.2 4.58 46.3 1384 47
2020 05 03 22 18 35 15.963 +17 26 44.32 .47373 1.2774 114.1 21.2 4.61 46.3 1415 47
2020 05 04 00 18 35 43.983 +17 33 06.84 .47235 1.2759 114.0 21.2 4.63 46.3 1446 47
2020 05 04 02 18 36 12.174 +17 39 31.15 .47098 1.2744 113.9 21.2 4.65 46.4 1477 47
2020 05 04 04 18 36 40.539 +17 45 57.27 .46961 1.2729 113.9 21.2 4.68 46.4 1509 47
2020 05 04 06 18 37 09.078 +17 52 25.20 .46825 1.2715 113.8 21.2 4.70 46.4 1541 47
2020 05 04 08 18 37 37.793 +17 58 54.94 .46689 1.2700 113.7 21.2 4.72 46.4 1574 47
2020 05 04 10 18 38 06.687 +18 05 26.50 .46553 1.2685 113.6 21.2 4.75 46.5 1608 47
2020 05 04 12 18 38 35.760 +18 11 59.88 .46418 1.2670 113.5 21.2 4.77 46.5 1642 47
2020 05 04 14 18 39 05.015 +18 18 35.10 .46283 1.2656 113.4 21.2 4.80 46.5 1676 47
2020 05 04 16 18 39 34.454 +18 25 12.16 .46148 1.2641 113.3 21.2 4.82 46.6 1711 47
2020 05 04 18 18 40 04.077 +18 31 51.07 .46013 1.2626 113.2 21.2 4.85 46.6 1747 47
2020 05 04 20 18 40 33.888 +18 38 31.83 .45879 1.2611 113.1 21.2 4.87 46.6 1783 47
~Sam
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