From planetaryscience at yahoo.com Sat May 2 19:06:51 2020 From: planetaryscience at yahoo.com (Sam Deen) Date: Sat, 2 May 2020 23:06:51 +0000 (UTC) Subject: [neo_followup] Last call for observations of possible comet/tj<3 object P10ZhFN (V ~= 21.3) References: <104318064.338738.1588460811335.ref@mail.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <104318064.338738.1588460811335@mail.yahoo.com> Hi all, P10ZhFN on the NEOCP currently has an arc of 2 days, from just 7 observations from F51 and L01. Based on these 7 observations, it fits quite well to a high-eccentricity orbit (CNEOS Scout listing below): https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/scout/#/object/P10ZhFN While the object's perihelion is constrained to ~0.4 to ~0.5 AU, the eccentricity is still quite uncertain. There's a 75% chance its orbit crosses Jupiter, and a roughly 40% chance its orbit crosses Saturn. At the present moment, its positional uncertainty is about 10-40 arcminutes, and if not recovered in the next day or two, will likely be completely lost if it isn't already. Geocentric ephemerides for the next two days with the nominal orbit: #Geocentric Date (UTC) HH RA Dec delta r elong mag '/hr PA " sig PA ---- -- -- -- ------------- ----------- ------ ------ ----- --- ------ ------ ---- --- 2020 05 02 22 18 28 32.131 +15 57 04.76 .40578 1.2385 115.6 21.4 4.06 45.7 2460 51 2020 05 03 00 18 28 56.409 +16 02 45.96 .40472 1.2374 115.5 21.4 4.08 45.7 2512 51 2020 05 03 02 18 29 20.811 +16 08 28.58 .40367 1.2363 115.4 21.4 4.10 45.8 2566 51 2020 05 03 04 18 29 45.337 +16 14 12.62 .40262 1.2353 115.3 21.4 4.12 45.8 2620 51 2020 05 03 06 18 30 09.990 +16 19 58.08 .40157 1.2342 115.3 21.4 4.14 45.8 2675 51 2020 05 03 08 18 30 34.771 +16 25 44.98 .40052 1.2331 115.2 21.4 4.15 45.8 2730 51 2020 05 03 10 18 30 59.679 +16 31 33.31 .39948 1.2320 115.1 21.4 4.17 45.8 2786 51 2020 05 03 12 18 31 24.717 +16 37 23.09 .39844 1.2310 115.0 21.4 4.19 45.8 2844 51 2020 05 03 14 18 31 49.885 +16 43 14.31 .39740 1.2299 115.0 21.4 4.21 45.8 2901 51 2020 05 03 16 18 32 15.185 +16 49 06.99 .39636 1.2288 114.9 21.4 4.23 45.9 2960 51 2020 05 03 18 18 32 40.618 +16 55 01.12 .39532 1.2278 114.8 21.4 4.25 45.9 3020 51 2020 05 03 20 18 33 06.185 +17 00 56.71 .39429 1.2267 114.7 21.4 4.27 45.9 3080 51 2020 05 03 22 18 33 31.887 +17 06 53.77 .39326 1.2256 114.7 21.3 4.29 45.9 3141 51 2020 05 04 00 18 33 57.725 +17 12 52.30 .39223 1.2245 114.6 21.3 4.30 45.9 3203 51 2020 05 04 02 18 34 23.701 +17 18 52.31 .39121 1.2235 114.5 21.3 4.32 46.0 3265 51 2020 05 04 04 18 34 49.816 +17 24 53.81 .39019 1.2224 114.4 21.3 4.34 46.0 3329 51 2020 05 04 06 18 35 16.070 +17 30 56.78 .38917 1.2213 114.3 21.3 4.36 46.0 3393 51 2020 05 04 08 18 35 42.466 +17 37 01.25 .38815 1.2202 114.2 21.3 4.38 46.0 3458 51 2020 05 04 10 18 36 09.004 +17 43 07.21 .38713 1.2192 114.2 21.3 4.40 46.0 3524 51 2020 05 04 12 18 36 35.686 +17 49 14.68 .38612 1.2181 114.1 21.3 4.42 46.1 3591 51 2020 05 04 14 18 37 02.512 +17 55 23.65 .38511 1.2170 114.0 21.3 4.44 46.1 3658 51 2020 05 04 16 18 37 29.485 +18 01 34.12 .38410 1.2159 113.9 21.3 4.46 46.1 3727 51 2020 05 04 18 18 37 56.606 +18 07 46.11 .38309 1.2149 113.8 21.3 4.48 46.1 3796 51 2020 05 04 20 18 38 23.875 +18 13 59.62 .38209 1.2138 113.7 21.3 4.50 46.1 3867 51 Geocentric ephemerides fitting a parabolic orbit: #Geocentric Date (UTC) HH RA Dec delta r elong mag '/hr PA " sig PA ---- -- -- -- ------------- ----------- ------ ------ ----- --- ------ ------ ---- --- 2020 05 02 22 18 29 52.522 +16 12 31.42 .49048 1.2950 115.2 21.3 4.33 46.1 1080 47 2020 05 03 00 18 30 18.607 +16 18 32.97 .48907 1.2936 115.1 21.3 4.36 46.1 1106 47 2020 05 03 02 18 30 44.845 +16 24 36.22 .48766 1.2921 115.0 21.3 4.38 46.1 1132 47 2020 05 03 04 18 31 11.237 +16 30 41.19 .48625 1.2906 114.9 21.3 4.40 46.1 1158 47 2020 05 03 06 18 31 37.785 +16 36 47.88 .48485 1.2892 114.8 21.3 4.42 46.2 1185 47 2020 05 03 08 18 32 04.490 +16 42 56.31 .48344 1.2877 114.7 21.3 4.44 46.2 1212 47 2020 05 03 10 18 32 31.355 +16 49 06.47 .48205 1.2862 114.7 21.3 4.47 46.2 1239 47 2020 05 03 12 18 32 58.379 +16 55 18.37 .48065 1.2847 114.6 21.3 4.49 46.2 1267 47 2020 05 03 14 18 33 25.566 +17 01 32.03 .47926 1.2833 114.5 21.3 4.51 46.2 1296 47 2020 05 03 16 18 33 52.916 +17 07 47.44 .47787 1.2818 114.4 21.3 4.54 46.3 1325 47 2020 05 03 18 18 34 20.431 +17 14 04.63 .47649 1.2803 114.3 21.3 4.56 46.3 1354 47 2020 05 03 20 18 34 48.113 +17 20 23.58 .47511 1.2788 114.2 21.2 4.58 46.3 1384 47 2020 05 03 22 18 35 15.963 +17 26 44.32 .47373 1.2774 114.1 21.2 4.61 46.3 1415 47 2020 05 04 00 18 35 43.983 +17 33 06.84 .47235 1.2759 114.0 21.2 4.63 46.3 1446 47 2020 05 04 02 18 36 12.174 +17 39 31.15 .47098 1.2744 113.9 21.2 4.65 46.4 1477 47 2020 05 04 04 18 36 40.539 +17 45 57.27 .46961 1.2729 113.9 21.2 4.68 46.4 1509 47 2020 05 04 06 18 37 09.078 +17 52 25.20 .46825 1.2715 113.8 21.2 4.70 46.4 1541 47 2020 05 04 08 18 37 37.793 +17 58 54.94 .46689 1.2700 113.7 21.2 4.72 46.4 1574 47 2020 05 04 10 18 38 06.687 +18 05 26.50 .46553 1.2685 113.6 21.2 4.75 46.5 1608 47 2020 05 04 12 18 38 35.760 +18 11 59.88 .46418 1.2670 113.5 21.2 4.77 46.5 1642 47 2020 05 04 14 18 39 05.015 +18 18 35.10 .46283 1.2656 113.4 21.2 4.80 46.5 1676 47 2020 05 04 16 18 39 34.454 +18 25 12.16 .46148 1.2641 113.3 21.2 4.82 46.6 1711 47 2020 05 04 18 18 40 04.077 +18 31 51.07 .46013 1.2626 113.2 21.2 4.85 46.6 1747 47 2020 05 04 20 18 40 33.888 +18 38 31.83 .45879 1.2611 113.1 21.2 4.87 46.6 1783 47 ~Sam From planetaryscience at yahoo.com Sat May 2 19:06:51 2020 From: planetaryscience at yahoo.com (Sam Deen) Date: Sat, 2 May 2020 23:06:51 +0000 (UTC) Subject: [neo_followup] Last call for observations of possible comet/tj<3 object P10ZhFN (V ~= 21.3) References: <104318064.338738.1588460811335.ref@mail.yahoo.com> Message-ID: <104318064.338738.1588460811335@mail.yahoo.com> Hi all, P10ZhFN on the NEOCP currently has an arc of 2 days, from just 7 observations from F51 and L01. Based on these 7 observations, it fits quite well to a high-eccentricity orbit (CNEOS Scout listing below): https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/scout/#/object/P10ZhFN While the object's perihelion is constrained to ~0.4 to ~0.5 AU, the eccentricity is still quite uncertain. There's a 75% chance its orbit crosses Jupiter, and a roughly 40% chance its orbit crosses Saturn. At the present moment, its positional uncertainty is about 10-40 arcminutes, and if not recovered in the next day or two, will likely be completely lost if it isn't already. Geocentric ephemerides for the next two days with the nominal orbit: #Geocentric Date (UTC) HH RA Dec delta r elong mag '/hr PA " sig PA ---- -- -- -- ------------- ----------- ------ ------ ----- --- ------ ------ ---- --- 2020 05 02 22 18 28 32.131 +15 57 04.76 .40578 1.2385 115.6 21.4 4.06 45.7 2460 51 2020 05 03 00 18 28 56.409 +16 02 45.96 .40472 1.2374 115.5 21.4 4.08 45.7 2512 51 2020 05 03 02 18 29 20.811 +16 08 28.58 .40367 1.2363 115.4 21.4 4.10 45.8 2566 51 2020 05 03 04 18 29 45.337 +16 14 12.62 .40262 1.2353 115.3 21.4 4.12 45.8 2620 51 2020 05 03 06 18 30 09.990 +16 19 58.08 .40157 1.2342 115.3 21.4 4.14 45.8 2675 51 2020 05 03 08 18 30 34.771 +16 25 44.98 .40052 1.2331 115.2 21.4 4.15 45.8 2730 51 2020 05 03 10 18 30 59.679 +16 31 33.31 .39948 1.2320 115.1 21.4 4.17 45.8 2786 51 2020 05 03 12 18 31 24.717 +16 37 23.09 .39844 1.2310 115.0 21.4 4.19 45.8 2844 51 2020 05 03 14 18 31 49.885 +16 43 14.31 .39740 1.2299 115.0 21.4 4.21 45.8 2901 51 2020 05 03 16 18 32 15.185 +16 49 06.99 .39636 1.2288 114.9 21.4 4.23 45.9 2960 51 2020 05 03 18 18 32 40.618 +16 55 01.12 .39532 1.2278 114.8 21.4 4.25 45.9 3020 51 2020 05 03 20 18 33 06.185 +17 00 56.71 .39429 1.2267 114.7 21.4 4.27 45.9 3080 51 2020 05 03 22 18 33 31.887 +17 06 53.77 .39326 1.2256 114.7 21.3 4.29 45.9 3141 51 2020 05 04 00 18 33 57.725 +17 12 52.30 .39223 1.2245 114.6 21.3 4.30 45.9 3203 51 2020 05 04 02 18 34 23.701 +17 18 52.31 .39121 1.2235 114.5 21.3 4.32 46.0 3265 51 2020 05 04 04 18 34 49.816 +17 24 53.81 .39019 1.2224 114.4 21.3 4.34 46.0 3329 51 2020 05 04 06 18 35 16.070 +17 30 56.78 .38917 1.2213 114.3 21.3 4.36 46.0 3393 51 2020 05 04 08 18 35 42.466 +17 37 01.25 .38815 1.2202 114.2 21.3 4.38 46.0 3458 51 2020 05 04 10 18 36 09.004 +17 43 07.21 .38713 1.2192 114.2 21.3 4.40 46.0 3524 51 2020 05 04 12 18 36 35.686 +17 49 14.68 .38612 1.2181 114.1 21.3 4.42 46.1 3591 51 2020 05 04 14 18 37 02.512 +17 55 23.65 .38511 1.2170 114.0 21.3 4.44 46.1 3658 51 2020 05 04 16 18 37 29.485 +18 01 34.12 .38410 1.2159 113.9 21.3 4.46 46.1 3727 51 2020 05 04 18 18 37 56.606 +18 07 46.11 .38309 1.2149 113.8 21.3 4.48 46.1 3796 51 2020 05 04 20 18 38 23.875 +18 13 59.62 .38209 1.2138 113.7 21.3 4.50 46.1 3867 51 Geocentric ephemerides fitting a parabolic orbit: #Geocentric Date (UTC) HH RA Dec delta r elong mag '/hr PA " sig PA ---- -- -- -- ------------- ----------- ------ ------ ----- --- ------ ------ ---- --- 2020 05 02 22 18 29 52.522 +16 12 31.42 .49048 1.2950 115.2 21.3 4.33 46.1 1080 47 2020 05 03 00 18 30 18.607 +16 18 32.97 .48907 1.2936 115.1 21.3 4.36 46.1 1106 47 2020 05 03 02 18 30 44.845 +16 24 36.22 .48766 1.2921 115.0 21.3 4.38 46.1 1132 47 2020 05 03 04 18 31 11.237 +16 30 41.19 .48625 1.2906 114.9 21.3 4.40 46.1 1158 47 2020 05 03 06 18 31 37.785 +16 36 47.88 .48485 1.2892 114.8 21.3 4.42 46.2 1185 47 2020 05 03 08 18 32 04.490 +16 42 56.31 .48344 1.2877 114.7 21.3 4.44 46.2 1212 47 2020 05 03 10 18 32 31.355 +16 49 06.47 .48205 1.2862 114.7 21.3 4.47 46.2 1239 47 2020 05 03 12 18 32 58.379 +16 55 18.37 .48065 1.2847 114.6 21.3 4.49 46.2 1267 47 2020 05 03 14 18 33 25.566 +17 01 32.03 .47926 1.2833 114.5 21.3 4.51 46.2 1296 47 2020 05 03 16 18 33 52.916 +17 07 47.44 .47787 1.2818 114.4 21.3 4.54 46.3 1325 47 2020 05 03 18 18 34 20.431 +17 14 04.63 .47649 1.2803 114.3 21.3 4.56 46.3 1354 47 2020 05 03 20 18 34 48.113 +17 20 23.58 .47511 1.2788 114.2 21.2 4.58 46.3 1384 47 2020 05 03 22 18 35 15.963 +17 26 44.32 .47373 1.2774 114.1 21.2 4.61 46.3 1415 47 2020 05 04 00 18 35 43.983 +17 33 06.84 .47235 1.2759 114.0 21.2 4.63 46.3 1446 47 2020 05 04 02 18 36 12.174 +17 39 31.15 .47098 1.2744 113.9 21.2 4.65 46.4 1477 47 2020 05 04 04 18 36 40.539 +17 45 57.27 .46961 1.2729 113.9 21.2 4.68 46.4 1509 47 2020 05 04 06 18 37 09.078 +17 52 25.20 .46825 1.2715 113.8 21.2 4.70 46.4 1541 47 2020 05 04 08 18 37 37.793 +17 58 54.94 .46689 1.2700 113.7 21.2 4.72 46.4 1574 47 2020 05 04 10 18 38 06.687 +18 05 26.50 .46553 1.2685 113.6 21.2 4.75 46.5 1608 47 2020 05 04 12 18 38 35.760 +18 11 59.88 .46418 1.2670 113.5 21.2 4.77 46.5 1642 47 2020 05 04 14 18 39 05.015 +18 18 35.10 .46283 1.2656 113.4 21.2 4.80 46.5 1676 47 2020 05 04 16 18 39 34.454 +18 25 12.16 .46148 1.2641 113.3 21.2 4.82 46.6 1711 47 2020 05 04 18 18 40 04.077 +18 31 51.07 .46013 1.2626 113.2 21.2 4.85 46.6 1747 47 2020 05 04 20 18 40 33.888 +18 38 31.83 .45879 1.2611 113.1 21.2 4.87 46.6 1783 47 ~Sam From pluto at projectpluto.com Fri May 22 10:34:13 2020 From: pluto at projectpluto.com (Bill Gray) Date: Fri, 22 May 2020 10:34:13 -0400 Subject: [neo_followup] C184DV1 = possible close approach Message-ID: Hello all, If you're observing in the next few hours, I'd highly recommend trying to get some data on this object. You can get solutions that are close in (and apt to come closer to us) for a small object, or more distant solutions for a larger object. The problem with the latter is that you start to get into the "we probably would have seen that" category of size. So I'm inclined to think it really _is_ going to zip close by us. Unfortunately, it's at a low elongation (51 degrees). It's also best observable now from places near central Asia, which is not packed with follow-up stations. (I've been _very_ glad to see observers from China doing follow-ups; they're ideally situated to get objects a few hours after CSS gets them. But this object is about to set from their viewpoint. I'm hoping they may have gotten the object and not reported it yet...) -- Bill From peter at birtwhistle.org.uk Fri May 22 10:43:56 2020 From: peter at birtwhistle.org.uk (Peter Birtwhistle) Date: Fri, 22 May 2020 15:43:56 +0100 Subject: [neo_followup] {MPML} C184DV1 = possible close approach In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <708f1486-e19b-b88a-5537-d37a34d580e5@birtwhistle.org.uk> It's been added to the PCCP about a half hour ago, so maybe it is further away? Peter J95 On 22/05/2020 15:34, Bill J. Gray wrote: > Hello all, > > ?? If you're observing in the next few hours,? I'd highly > recommend trying to get some data on this object.? You can > get solutions that are close in (and apt to come closer to us) > for a small object,? or more distant solutions for a larger > object. > > ?? The problem with the latter is that you start to get into > the "we probably would have seen that" category of size.? So > I'm inclined to think it really _is_ going to zip close by us. > > ?? Unfortunately,? it's at a low elongation (51 degrees).? It's > also best observable now from places near central Asia,? which > is not packed with follow-up stations.? (I've been _very_ glad > to see observers from China doing follow-ups;? they're ideally > situated to get objects a few hours after CSS gets them.? But > this object is about to set from their viewpoint.? I'm hoping > they may have gotten the object and not reported it yet...) > > -- Bill > > -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- > Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. > > View/Reply Online (#35543): https://groups.io/g/mpml/message/35543 > Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/74400254/1447918 > -=-=- > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, > with the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as > the source of the information. > -=-=- > Group Owner: mpml+owner at groups.io > Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/mpml/unsub [peter at birtwhistle.org.uk] > -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- > > . From pluto at projectpluto.com Fri May 22 12:31:29 2020 From: pluto at projectpluto.com (Bill Gray) Date: Fri, 22 May 2020 12:31:29 -0400 Subject: [neo_followup] {MPML} C184DV1 = possible close approach In-Reply-To: <708f1486-e19b-b88a-5537-d37a34d580e5@birtwhistle.org.uk> References: <708f1486-e19b-b88a-5537-d37a34d580e5@birtwhistle.org.uk> Message-ID: <5fd6d0e6-f336-4302-495d-a6640e6551f4@projectpluto.com> Hi Peter, all, I should've had another cup of coffee before posting. A cometary orbit would be entirely possible for this object, and is the most likely explanation. -- Bill On 5/22/20 10:43 AM, Peter Birtwhistle wrote: > It's been added to the PCCP about a half hour ago, so maybe it is further away? > > Peter > J95 > > > On 22/05/2020 15:34, Bill J. Gray wrote: >> Hello all, >> >> ?? If you're observing in the next few hours,? I'd highly >> recommend trying to get some data on this object.? You can >> get solutions that are close in (and apt to come closer to us) >> for a small object,? or more distant solutions for a larger >> object. >> >> ?? The problem with the latter is that you start to get into >> the "we probably would have seen that" category of size.? So >> I'm inclined to think it really _is_ going to zip close by us. >> >> ?? Unfortunately,? it's at a low elongation (51 degrees).? It's >> also best observable now from places near central Asia,? which >> is not packed with follow-up stations.? (I've been _very_ glad >> to see observers from China doing follow-ups;? they're ideally >> situated to get objects a few hours after CSS gets them.? But >> this object is about to set from their viewpoint.? I'm hoping >> they may have gotten the object and not reported it yet...) >> >> -- Bill >> >> >> >> . > > > -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- > Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. > > View/Reply Online (#35545): https://groups.io/g/mpml/message/35545 > Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/74400254/1447963 > -=-=- > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the source of the information. > -=-=- > Group Owner: mpml+owner at groups.io > Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/mpml/unsub? [pluto at projectpluto.com] > -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- >