[neo_followup] {MPML} C1979M1 earth-orbiting object (maybe artificial) decent chance of Earth impact on September 1. FOLLOWUP NEEDED ASAP!!!!!!

[Jonathan McDowell]

I don't have a specific candidate in my catalog, but I'd be surprised if
this is not an artsat.  Likely one of the lost objects previously in a
higher apogee orbit,
that had closer to lunar apogee before making a previous perigee pass?
It'll experience a lot of drag at each perigee pass with that low perigee
so I guess it's hard to propagate it back more than a few days to figure
out what its origin might be, I can imagine if  a piece came off 2011-037's
Fregat rocket stage it might get perturbed into an orbit like this.
 - Jonathan


On Wed, 26 Aug 2020 at 04:47, Sam Deen via groups.io <planetaryscience=
yahoo.com at groups.io> wrote:

> Hi all,
>
> Forgive this being a bit hasty, and possibly poorly researched depending
> on the outcome of the coming hours/days. I'm not sure what to make of it
> but can not overemphasize the importance of followup
>
> C1979M1, discovered by catalina (703) 3 hours ago as of writing, is
> currently on a geocentric orbit of Earth that looks like this at the
> present epoch:
>
>    Perigee 2020 Aug 25.334348 +/- 0.00271 TT =  8:01:27 (JD 2459086.834348)
> Epoch 2020 Aug 26.0 TT = JDT 2459087.5                        Find_Orb
> M 104.26387312 +/- 0.49             (J2000 equator)
> n 156.63422190 +/- 0.117            Peri.  205.69821 +/- 0.06
> a 73566.3264 +/- 36.6               Node   306.95991 +/- 0.009
> e   0.9117157 +/- 0.000112          Incl.   55.14735 +/- 0.0056
> P3309.56m/2.298d           H 29.8   G  0.15   U 11.3
> q 6494.74942 +/- 5.6    Q 140637.903 +/- 77.2
> From 13 observations 2020 Aug. 26 (2.6 hr); mean residual 0".28
>
> I'm not an expert on satellite orbits, but as far as I'm aware there's no
> known artificial satellites with an orbit like this. Again, take that with
> a grain of salt as my knowledge isn't complete, but what I can say more
> confidently is that if it is known, what isn't known is that, assuming it
> has a fairly low AMR, it will almost certainly be impacting Earth on
> September 1st (upcoming artsat reentries don't list any objects on an orbit
> even remotely similar to this one any time soon):
>
>    Perigee 2020 Sep 1.229800 +/- 0.00772 TT =  5:30:54 (JD 2459093.729800)
> Epoch 2020 Sep  1.0 TT = JDT 2459093.5                        Find_Orb
> M 323.99451483 +/- 1.1              (J2000 equator)
> n 156.68156709 +/- 0.117            Peri.  205.92251 +/- 0.06
> a 73551.5058 +/- 36.6               Node   306.55647 +/- 0.011
> e   0.9136219 +/- 0.000111          Incl.   54.78299 +/- 0.006
> P3308.56m/2.298d           H 29.8   G  0.15   U 11.3
> q 6353.23441 +/- 5.6    Q 140749.777 +/- 77.3
> From 13 observations 2020 Aug. 26 (2.6 hr); mean residual 0".28
> IMPACT at   1 Sep 2020  5:28:32.46 lat -15.45909 lon E74.93635
>
> As you can see with the long and lat of the impact, it will probably be
> over the middle of the Indian ocean and (sadly for any hope of fireworks)
> far away from land.
>
> Of course, all of this is made assuming that it's an asteroid and not an
> unidentified artsat. It being one probably won't change the September 1st
> impact considering the object hasn't displayed any trash-baggy behavior in
> its 3 hour observation arc so far- but it would be extremely important
> nonetheless scientifically at least to confirm if this thing is a rock or
> not.
>
> ~Sam
>
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