[neo_followup] {MPML} C1979M1 earth-orbiting object (maybe artificial) decent chance of Earth impact on September 1. FOLLOWUP NEEDED ASAP!!!!!!

Wed Aug 26 05:09:23 EDT 2020

 Hi all,

Quick update

The orbit of this object has an orbit very suspiciously similar to that of INTEGRAL:

Orbital elements: WJ2B5AC = INTEGRAL = 2002-048A = NORAD 27540 
 Perigee 2015 Aug 1.827363 +/- 0.000663 TT = 19:51:24 (JD 2457236.327363)
Epoch 2015 Aug 1.0 TT; AMR 0.062553 +/- 0.0213 m²/kg Find_Orb
M 248.04907 +/- 0.08 (J2000 equatorial)
n 135.31051136 +/- 0.000348 Peri. 258.63494 +/- 0.018
a 81105.2839 +/- 0.139 Node 219.10574 +/- 0.012
e 0.8104486 +/- 0.000103 Incl. 53.15620 +/- 0.0018
P 2.66d H 28.4 G 0.15 U 7.4
q 15373.6177 +/- 8.34 Q 146836.950 +/- 8.45
34 of 75 observations 2015 June 21-Nov. 20; mean residual 62".177

C1979M1:
 Perigee 2020 Aug 25.334348 +/- 0.00271 TT = 8:01:27 (JD 2459086.834348)
Epoch 2020 Aug 26.0 TT = JDT 2459087.5 Find_Orb
M 104.26387307 +/- 0.49 (J2000 equator)
n 156.63422189 +/- 0.117 Peri. 205.69821 +/- 0.06
a 73566.3264 +/- 36.6 Node 306.95991 +/- 0.009
e 0.9117157 +/- 0.000112 Incl. 55.14735 +/- 0.0056
P3309.56m/2.298d H 29.8 G 0.15 U 11.3 
q 6494.74942 +/- 5.6 Q 140637.903 +/- 77.2
>From 13 observations 2020 Aug. 26 (2.6 hr); mean residual 0".28

However, the biggest problem with this is that INTEGRAL is an active and continually operating spacecraft, and there's no recorded (officially or unofficially) "debris" from it, orbiting or not orbiting. Not to mention that I feel like debris almost as large as the spacecraft itself (H = 28.4 vs 29.8) would definitely have been catalogued in some shape or another. So if it is related to INTEGRAL, it's quite the strange object.

~Sam
     On Wednesday, August 26, 2020, 01:47:51 AM MST, Sam Deen via groups.io <planetaryscience=yahoo.com at groups.io> wrote:  

 Hi all,

Forgive this being a bit hasty, and possibly poorly researched depending on the outcome of the coming hours/days. I'm not sure what to make of it but can not overemphasize the importance of followup

C1979M1, discovered by catalina (703) 3 hours ago as of writing, is currently on a geocentric orbit of Earth that looks like this at the present epoch:

  Perigee 2020 Aug 25.334348 +/- 0.00271 TT =  8:01:27 (JD 2459086.834348)
Epoch 2020 Aug 26.0 TT = JDT 2459087.5                        Find_Orb
M 104.26387312 +/- 0.49            (J2000 equator)
n 156.63422190 +/- 0.117            Peri.  205.69821 +/- 0.06
a 73566.3264 +/- 36.6              Node  306.95991 +/- 0.009
e  0.9117157 +/- 0.000112          Incl.  55.14735 +/- 0.0056
P3309.56m/2.298d          H 29.8  G  0.15  U 11.3  
q 6494.74942 +/- 5.6    Q 140637.903 +/- 77.2
>From 13 observations 2020 Aug. 26 (2.6 hr); mean residual 0".28

I'm not an expert on satellite orbits, but as far as I'm aware there's no known artificial satellites with an orbit like this. Again, take that with a grain of salt as my knowledge isn't complete, but what I can say more confidently is that if it is known, what isn't known is that, assuming it has a fairly low AMR, it will almost certainly be impacting Earth on September 1st (upcoming artsat reentries don't list any objects on an orbit even remotely similar to this one any time soon):

  Perigee 2020 Sep 1.229800 +/- 0.00772 TT =  5:30:54 (JD 2459093.729800)
Epoch 2020 Sep  1.0 TT = JDT 2459093.5                        Find_Orb
M 323.99451483 +/- 1.1              (J2000 equator)
n 156.68156709 +/- 0.117            Peri.  205.92251 +/- 0.06
a 73551.5058 +/- 36.6              Node  306.55647 +/- 0.011
e  0.9136219 +/- 0.000111          Incl.  54.78299 +/- 0.006
P3308.56m/2.298d          H 29.8  G  0.15  U 11.3  
q 6353.23441 +/- 5.6    Q 140749.777 +/- 77.3
>From 13 observations 2020 Aug. 26 (2.6 hr); mean residual 0".28
IMPACT at  1 Sep 2020  5:28:32.46 lat -15.45909 lon E74.93635

As you can see with the long and lat of the impact, it will probably be over the middle of the Indian ocean and (sadly for any hope of fireworks) far away from land.

Of course, all of this is made assuming that it's an asteroid and not an unidentified artsat. It being one probably won't change the September 1st impact considering the object hasn't displayed any trash-baggy behavior in its 3 hour observation arc so far- but it would be extremely important nonetheless scientifically at least to confirm if this thing is a rock or not.

~Sam

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group.

View/Reply Online (#35757): https://groups.io/g/mpml/message/35757
Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/76424462/2027585
-=-=-
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the source of the information.
-=-=-
Group Owner: mpml+owner at groups.io
Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/mpml/unsub  [planetaryscience at yahoo.com]
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://projectpluto.com/pipermail/neo_followup_projectpluto.com/attachments/20200826/fea34cb1/attachment.htm>